The Journal of Public and International Affairs
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pp. 591-616
Contingency, Catalysts, and International System Change
Richard Ned Lebow asserts there have been three transformations of the international system in the twentieth century. He conducts a counterfactual analysis of World War I--one such transformation--to show there is no necessary relationship between the number and the intensity of underlying causes and the probability of an event. The immediate causes of World War I--the double assassinations at Sarajevo--met a diverse set of political and psychological requirements without which Austrian and German leaders would not have taken the steps that led to war. Sarajevo indicates that there is a class of situations that require complex and highly specialized triggers whose appearance may be infrequent.
Choosing War: The Lost Chance for Peace and the Escalation of War in Vietnam, Fredrik Logevall Reviewed by Richard Ned Lebow
Roosevelt and the Munich Crisis: A Study of Political Decision-Making, Barbara Readen Farnham Reviewed by Richard Ned Lebow
Living with Peril: Eisenhower, Kennedy, and Nuclear Weapons, Andreas Wenger Reviewed by Richard Ned Lebow
The Cuban Missile Crisis: The Struggle over Policy, Roger Hilsman Reviewed by Richard Ned Lebow
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